Quick answer
HomeGuide's 2026 guide puts a standard-efficiency central AC replacement at $5,000 to $8,300 installed, rising to $12,500 or more for high-end systems. In Arizona, split systems under 45,000 Btu/h installed since 2023 must meet at least 14.3 SEER2 and 11.7 EER2. SRP's Cool Cash rebate pays $75 to $225 per ton for qualifying systems of 15.2 SEER2 or higher.
Updated · By the AC Phoenix Pros editorial team · How we research
We are an independent guide and Not a Licensed Contractor. We do not sell or install equipment. Use this page to compare quotes from licensed contractors.
How much does a new AC cost in Phoenix?
HomeGuide's 2026 AC replacement guide bases its estimates on a 2,000 square foot home, without ductwork changes. Its tiers are $5,000 to $8,300 for standard efficiency, $8,300 to $12,500 for mid-range and $12,500 to $14,000 or more for high-end systems.
| System size | Installed cost (HomeGuide estimate) |
|---|---|
| 2 tons | $5,000 to $6,800 |
| 3 tons | $5,800 to $7,800 |
| 4 tons | $6,500 to $8,800 |
| 5 tons | $7,000 to $9,500 or more |
| Efficiency (SEER2) | Installed cost (HomeGuide estimate) |
|---|---|
| 14.0 to 14.7 | $6,700 to $9,300 |
| 15.0 to 17.2 | $7,500 to $10,600 |
| 16.5 to 18.5 | $9,100 to $12,200 |
| Up to 25.8 | $11,400 to $17,300 or more |
HomeGuide lists an AC plus furnace system at $10,500 to $18,500 installed, minor duct sealing at $300 to $1,500 and full ductwork replacement at $1,400 to $5,600 or more. It says new systems last 15 to 20 years on average.
What efficiency does Arizona require?
Arizona is in the federal "hot-dry" Southwest region with California, Nevada and New Mexico. Under the U.S. Department of Energy's 2023 standards, split-system central ACs installed on or after January 1, 2023 must meet:
- Under 45,000 Btu/h: at least 14.3 SEER2, plus 11.7 EER2 (or 9.8 EER2 if the system is rated 15.2 SEER2 or higher).
- 45,000 Btu/h and up: at least 13.8 SEER2, plus 11.2 EER2 (or 9.8 EER2 at 15.2 SEER2 or higher).
- Split-system heat pumps nationwide: at least 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2.
EER2 matters in Phoenix because it measures efficiency at high outdoor temperatures. DOE says contractors should not install a non-compliant unit in the Southwest and invites reports of illegal installations.
Which rebates and credits are left in 2026?
- SRP Cool Cash: per SRP, $75 per ton for single-stage, $150 for multi-stage and $225 for variable-capacity systems at 15.2 SEER2 or higher, up to $1,125 per unit. The installer must be licensed in Arizona and sign SRP's contractor terms, both indoor and outdoor units of a split system must be replaced, single-stage systems need a Manual J load calculation, installation must be before April 30, 2027, and you must apply within 6 months.
- APS: APS ended its residential AC and heat pump equipment rebates at the start of 2026, so a 2026 install earns no APS rebate. A One Hour Heating & Air Conditioning guide, written by a contractor tracking the change, flags any 2026 quote that still lists one.
- Federal tax credit: the IRS limits the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit to property placed in service through 2025.
How do you compare two replacement quotes fairly?
Put the quotes side by side and check that they describe the same job: the same tonnage, matched indoor and outdoor model numbers, the rated SEER2 and EER2, and the same scope for ducts, electrical work, thermostat and removal of the old unit. A cheaper quote that leaves out the indoor coil or the permit is not cheaper. The FTC says a contract should list the contractor's name, address, phone and license number, estimated start and completion dates, every verbal promise, and a written statement of your right to cancel. If you sign at home, the FTC's Cooling-Off Rule generally gives you three business days to cancel.
Does a Phoenix AC replacement need a permit?
The City of Phoenix AC replacement guideline lists screening questions, and a permit is required if any answer is yes. Examples: the new unit goes in a different location, is heavier or has a different footprint, needs ductwork changes, draws more amps or needs new wiring, or involves components inside the building. Other Valley cities have their own rules; see our city pages. The ROC notes that permit responsibility should be spelled out in the contract.
What should a replacement quote include?
- A load calculation, such as Manual J, rather than matching the old unit's size by default. The BBB suggests asking how the contractor determined the capacity.
- Brand, model numbers and the AHRI-rated SEER2 and EER2 of the matched system.
- Duct, electrical, pad, thermostat and disposal work, plus permit costs.
- Manufacturer and labor warranty terms, and who handles rebate paperwork.
Verify the installer's license in the ROC contractor search and plan regular maintenance afterward. Unsure whether to replace at all? Read repair or replace, then send a request if you want an introduction.
Frequently asked questions
What size AC does a Phoenix home need?
There is no reliable rule of thumb by square footage alone. Insulation, windows, sun exposure and ducts all change the load. Ask for a Manual J load calculation. SRP requires one with the rebate application for single-stage systems, and the BBB suggests asking every contractor how they determined the capacity they quoted.
What is the minimum SEER2 for a new AC in Arizona?
Under DOE's 2023 Southwest regional standard, split-system ACs under 45,000 Btu/h must be at least 14.3 SEER2 and 11.7 EER2, or 9.8 EER2 if rated 15.2 SEER2 or higher. Larger split systems need at least 13.8 SEER2. SRP's rebate starts at 15.2 SEER2.
How much is the SRP rebate on a 4-ton system?
SRP pays per ton of nominal cooling capacity: $75 per ton for single-stage, $150 for multi-stage and $225 for variable-capacity systems rated 15.2 SEER2 or higher. A qualifying 4-ton variable-capacity system would therefore earn $900, within the $1,125 per-unit maximum, if all program terms are met.
Can I still get a federal tax credit for a new AC in 2026?
No, based on the IRS description of the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, which covers qualifying property placed in service from 2023 through 2025. Check current IRS guidance with a tax professional before you count on any federal incentive, and look at SRP utility rebates instead.
Sources
- HomeGuide: AC Replacement Cost (2026 guide)
- U.S. Department of Energy: 2023 Central AC and Heat Pump Standards FAQ
- SRP: Cool Cash AC and Heat Pump Rebate
- One Hour Heating & Air Conditioning (contractor guide): APS and SRP rebates in 2026
- IRS: Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit
- City of Phoenix: Air Conditioner Replacement Counter Questions and Guidelines
Independent homeowner guide operated by SWKM GmbH. Not a licensed contractor. We do not perform HVAC work. More about this site.